AI Set to Dominate Trump’s 2025 Visit to the Gulf

Artificial intelligence is expected to take center stage during President Donald Trump’s upcoming visit to the Gulf region, as he prepares to travel to Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE from May 13 to 16. High-level discussions will revolve around deepening tech alliances, expanding access to advanced American semiconductors and unlocking new streams of Gulf investment in US-based AI and data infrastructure.

AI Partnerships Tied to National Security and Investment Strategy

This diplomatic mission comes amid intensifying US scrutiny of tech transfers linked to China. Trump administration officials are navigating complex trade-offs: attracting trillions in Gulf investment without undermining America’s national security strategy, especially around AI, chips & cloud technologies.

“The US and GCC nations must align on critical technologies that impact security and sovereignty” says Thea Kendler, former assistant secretary at the Commerce Department, now a partner at Mayer Brown in Washington.

Saudi Arabia & the UAE have already pledged over $2 trillion in future tech-related investments into the United States. Much of that is aimed at high-impact sectors such as AI model training, cloud computing, quantum computing and semiconductor fabrication.

Trump is expected to push for even more financial commitments during his Gulf tour, though the realization of these pledges will depend heavily on how CFIUS (Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States) evaluates their national security implications.

Tensions Around CFIUS and AI Infrastructure

Analysts suggest that the CFIUS process will be a focal point of the trip. Mohammed Soliman of the Middle East Institute cautions that the US can’t expect major tech investment from Gulf partners while maintaining rigid restrictions.

“Gulf nations aren’t looking to invest in infrastructure; they’re focused on frontier technologies like chips, AI & cybersecurity” says Soliman.

Many regional governments are racing to build world-class AI ecosystems and to do so, they need reliable access to top-tier semiconductor technologies, particularly from US companies.

Balancing Gulf Access to AI Chips with US Policy Toward China

The Biden administration’s October 2023 limits on AI chip exports to the Middle East, prompted by concerns over indirect access to US tech by China’s military, still shape the landscape today.

However, a series of corrective deals soon followed:

• G42 (UAE) cut ties with Chinese tech firms to secure a strategic partnership with Microsoft.
• Saudi Arabia’s PIF struck an agreement with Google.
• Qatar partnered with Scale AI, a leading US-based firm.
  

Now, under Trump, there’s growing momentum to revisit export limits and allow for greater cloud infrastructure collaboration between US tech giants & Gulf governments.

“One path forward could involve US cloud companies building data centers directly in the region” says Sam Winter-Levy, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment. “Another involves enabling Gulf entities to independently purchase semiconductors from US suppliers”.

Each model carries different risks. A US-led cloud presence could tie American foreign policy to Gulf-hosted assets. Meanwhile, Gulf autonomy in chip access might accelerate regional military AI applications, intelligence gathering and cyber capabilities.

Regulatory Adjustments on the Horizon

Sources indicate that the Trump administration is drafting revisions to the Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion, issued at the end of Biden’s term. The goal is to enable bilateral agreements that expand chip access to Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while keeping sensitive AI use cases in check.

Recent reports also confirm that the White House is reviewing export restrictions on Nvidia chips to the UAE, with new thresholds potentially being negotiated through intergovernmental channels.

“There’s bipartisan concern in Washington over China’s use of advanced AI in military settings” says Kendler. “That concern hasn’t changed, it’s the method of containment that’s evolving”.

Navigating a Multi-Polar Tech World

Despite Washington’s push, analysts agree the Gulf can’t fully disengage from China, its primary energy customer and a key trade partner.

“This is not about banning all tech collaboration” Kendler explains. “The focus is on the most advanced technologies with national security sensitivities”.

Winter-Levy suggests a middle-ground deal is possible, where US firms co-develop AI infrastructure with Gulf nations while safeguarding core intellectual property and restricting exports of cutting-edge AI models.

“Ultimately, Gulf nations may gain access to chips just behind the current state-of-the-art, enabling AI innovation without crossing critical security thresholds”.